While it's nice to see that good things may be happening, let us not forget what the West considers to be the only important issue with regards to Serbia and its current status:

BELGRADE (AP)--Serbia's prime minister said resumption of pre-entry talks with the European Union would speed up the arrest of top U.N. war crimes suspect Ratko Mladic.
Vojislav Kostunica told Serbian state television in an interview late Thursday the E.U. decision earlier this year to freeze the negotiations with Belgrade over Serbian failure to capture Mladic only made it harder for the country to hand him over. The fugitive general is wanted on genocide charges by the U.N. court in The Hague, Netherlands.
"Had the talks continued, then the obligation to detain and transfer Ratko Mladic to The Hague would have been more easily fulfilled in an atmosphere of cooperation," Kostunica said.
Kostunica didn't explain how restarting E.U. talks would help in hunting down Mladic, insisting his government isn't aware of the general's whereabouts. He, however, said "it was very important not to suspend those talks."
There was no immediate comment from the E.U.
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20061229%5cACQDJON200612290649DOWJONESDJONLINE000336.htm&

Here's a link to some background on the Jugoremedija situation:
http://www.zmag.org/Sustainers/Content/2006-07/16grubacic.cfm

Major Victory for Worker Recovered Factory "Jugoremedija" in SerbiaAnonymous, Thursday, December 28, 2006 - 02:36 (Communiqués Solidarite internationale)
First paragraph (Teaser):
A major victory for worker's rights and struggles in Serbia has been won following a 9 month factory occupation and a 2 and a half year strike by the workers of Jugoremedija in Zrenjanin, Serbia. On December 14, 2006, the Belgrade Higher Economic Court reaffirmed the June 2006 ruling of the Zrenjanin Economic Court that the recapitalization of the Zrenjanin-based pharmaceutical factory Jugoremedija be repealed because it was carried out illegally through the illegitimate manoeuvres of businessman Jovica Stefanovic Nini to attempt to gain majority ownership. This means that the ownership of the workers has now been restored to their rightful 58% of the company shares. With this decision, Jugoremedija is set to become the first factory amongst the "transition" countries in Eastern Europe undergoing neoliberal privatization to be recovered and controlled by its workers.
http://www.cmaq.net/en/archive/2006/12/28

13 Dec 2006 14:01:28 GMT13 Dec 2006 14:01:28 GMT ## for search indexer, do not remove-->
Source: Human Rights Watch
Reuters and AlertNet are not responsible for the content of this article or for any external internet sites. The views expressed are the author's alone.

(New York, December 14, 2006) ? The trial of Slobodan Milosevic, which ended with his death before a verdict could be rendered, has provided important evidence about the role of Belgrade in pursuing the conflicts in the former Yugoslavia, Human Rights Watch said in a report released today. "Although Milosevic was never convicted, evidence exposed at his trial showed how Belgrade orchestrated the vicious wars in Bosnia, Croatia and Kosovo," said Sara Darehshori, senior counsel in the International Justice Program at Human Rights Watch. "The Milosevic trial also shows how to manage ? or not ? future prosecutions of high-ranking officials for crimes of huge magnitude."
The 76-page report, "Weighing the Evidence: Lessons of the Slobodan Milosevic Trial," examines key evidence introduced at trial, the most comprehensive account to date of the conflicts in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo. The report finds that the trial revealed how leaders in Belgrade and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia financed the wars; how they provided material to Croatian and Bosnian Serbs; and how they created administrative and personnel structures to support the Croatian Serb and Bosnian Serb armies. The report traces the mechanisms, some of which were previously secret, by which Belgrade fueled the conflicts.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/HRW/d873fa58ecad6778a58f96b5eade21e8.htm

NEWSMAKER-Seselj 'ready to die' in name of Serbia
06 Dec 2006 17:41:52 GMT06 Dec 2006 17:41:52 GMT ## for search indexer, do not remove-->
Source: Reuters
By Ellie Tzortzi
BELGRADE, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Firebrand Serb nationalist Vojislav Seselj says he is determined to take his defiance of the Hague war crimes tribunal to the bitter end by starving himself to death in detention....
The bespectacled, burly former politics lecturer has been an explosive figure in Serbian politics for over two decades.
He served two years in prison for anti-communist dissident activities in old socialist Yugoslavia in the 1980s, and went on hunger strike for 48 days.
In 1990 he was jailed twice, for organising volunteers to go fight with the rebel Serb minority in Croatia, and for selling books on the Chetniks, a World War Two Serb resistance group.
A prolific author of among others "The ideology of Serbian nationalism" and "Devil's apprentice: the criminal Roman Pope John Paul II", Seselj is known for passionate speeches, a short temper and aphorisms such as threatening Serb enemies he would "gouge out their eyes with rusty spoons".
He once brandished a gun threateningly outside Serbia's parliament, and spat on the speaker. He was expelled from Montenegro in 1994 for insulting its government, and had to be physically carried onto the plane back to Belgrade.
Seselj was close to the late Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic. Before Milosevic's death in detention at the Hague this March, the two men were frequent chess partners, and consulted each other on how to conduct their defence.
VOLUNTARY SURRENDER
Seselj voluntarily flew to the United Nations tribunal in 2003 to face charges of war crimes during the 1990s Balkan wars....
He stopped eating on Nov. 10 after the court assigned him a defence lawyer against his wishes. He has taken only water since and is now wasting away, confined to his prison bed.
At the weekend, he issued an edict to his Radical party in the form of a "last will and testament", ordering it to uphold the dream of "Greater Serbia" on Bosnian and Croatian land.
"I demand that you never give up our strong national ideology, and fight for the union of all Serb lands," he wrote.
"You should continue to vehemently oppose globalisation and all attempts to bring Serbia into NATO and the European Union, because all of Serbia's traditional enemies are gathered there."
His party, which bases its campaign for January elections on Seselj's plight, has said its leader would either beat the tribunal and defend himself, or fast to death.
Seselj later said he wanted no more visits, from friends or doctors, and was determined to fast to death in prison unless his demand to represent himself in court was recognised.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L05669948.htm

Report: Serbia's Gypsies have few rights
BELGRADE, Serbia, Dec. 12 (UPI) -- Nearly half of Gypsies living in Serbia do not enjoy the rights to education, employment and healthcare, a minority rights official said Tuesday.
A recent survey among a group of 36,000 Gypsies, showed 46 percent of them could not register their residence addresses as they live in cardboard shanties, often without water or electricity. With no address they cannot get ID cards, which are needed in communications with any state body.
Petar Antic, of the Serbian Center for Minority Rights, said Gypsies live in a parallel world beyond Serbia's system, Belgrade's B92 radio reported. Antic warned if this problem is not solved, in the next 10 years Serbia will have the biggest security-threatening ghetto in Europe, the radio said.
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/view.php?StoryID=20061212-090947-7334r

Serbia invites dead Milosevic to vote
BELGRADE, Serbia, Oct. 23 (UPI) -- Serbia's former President Slobodan Milosevic has been invited to vote in a referendum, although his March death in a U.N. detention cell was widely publicized.
Belgrade's Press daily reported a voting card was sent to Milosevic's villa in the Serbian capital inviting the late president to cast his ballot next weekend, the BBC said Monday.
Milosevic died of a heart attack in March while on trial at The Hague tribunal on genocide and crimes against humanity charges in the former Yugoslavia from 1991-95.
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/view.php?StoryID=20061023-011719-4820r

By NICHOLAS WOOD
Published: October 31, 2006
Voters have approved a new constitution reasserting Serbia’s claim to the mostly Albanian southern province of Kosovo, now in contentious United Nations-backed talks about possible independence, election officials said. They said that 54.19 percent of registered voters went to the polls over the weekend and that more than 96 percent of them backed the referendum. Under the new constitution, the federal government will have the right to remove locally elected officials and appoint replacements and Parliament’s control over judges will be increased.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/31/world/europe/31briefs-003.html

Guess who has crawled out from under her rock to hurl more insults at Serbia for not having arrested Mladic yet....

Mon Oct 16, 2:09 PM ET
UN war crimes prosecutor Carla Del Ponte lashed Serbia for failing to arrest former Bosnian Serb military chief Ratko Mladic, and urged the EU not to resume talks on closer ties with Belgrade.
"It is almost a smokescreen that they are describing and showing us, it is not real political will and investigative will to locate and arrest Mladic," she told journalists after talks with senior European Union officials.
"They have no strategy, they are not showing us the results of the work they are doing. It's an inquiry that heads off in all directions and achieves nothing," she said.
In May, Brussels suspended talks with Belgrade on a stabilisation and association agreement -- a first step toward joining the EU -- for failing to fully cooperate with the International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia.
The chief reason was that Serbia had not arrested Mladic, who has been indicted for genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity during the 1992-1995 Bosnian war. He was believed to have been hiding in Serbia.
"I hope the decision will be the confirmation of the suspension of negotiations," Del Ponte said, after talks with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn and Finnish Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja, whose country currently holds the EU's rotating presidency.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20061016/wl_afp/euenlargeserbia_061016180904

Serbian PM Urges Voters To Approve New Constitution
BELGRADE (AP)--Serbia's Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica urged his country Friday to overwhelmingly approve a new constitution that declares independence- seeking Kosovo an integral part of Serb territory.
Kostunica said in an interview published in the pro-government daily, Politika, that Serbian voters approving the charter in a nationwide referendum slated for Oct. 28-29, was more important to him than winning early parliamentary elections, expected in December.
Parliament approved the draft constitution this month.
Kostunica's comments reflect the government's intensified pro-referendum campaign in the face of criticism by several political figures here who have urged a boycott of the balloting.
The new constitution also defines the country as independent for the first time since the bloody breakup of the former, six-republic federation of Yugoslavia in the early 1990s.
"I am convinced this constitution will get sweeping approval by the citizens," Kostunica said in the interview, dismissing criticism that his Cabinet hastily drew up the draft and that there was no nationwide debate on the issue.
"I stand ready to lose (my post), as long as Serbia gets a new constitution," said Kostunica, who has seen waning support in Serbia.
More than half of Serbia's 6 million voters must approve the draft in the referendum before the new constitution can take effect.
The charter is likely to set Belgrade on another collision course with the West, for declaring the ethnic Albanian province of Kosovo an inalienable part of Serbia.
It comes at a sensitive time, as U.N.-led negotiations between Belgrade and Kosovo's ethnic Albanian leaders on Kosovo's final status are entering a critical phase.
Earlier this month, U.S. State Department spokesman Tom Casey rejected the Serbian parliament's approval of the constitution, saying the future of the rebellious, U.N.-run province will not be "decided unilaterally" but through a " negotiated process."
Among the loudest criticism, parliament speaker Bojan Kostres in Serbia's northern Vojvodina province called this week for a referendum boycott, claiming the charter didn't grant sufficient autonomy to Vojvodina - Serbia's breadbasket and richest region.
Some political parties from the Hungarian minority, which lives predominantly in Vojvodina, also back a boycott, as do several liberal groups.
Ethnic Albanians living in southern Serbia close to Kosovo said they would stay away. Serbian officials have said Kosovo's 2 million ethnic Albanians won't be invited to vote on the draft constitution.
Kostunica said it was important the constitution "clearly defines Kosovo...integral within Serbia" and that the Kosovo Albanians' demand for independence was an "unjustifiable wish." (END) Dow Jones Newswires
10-13-060659ET
Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20061013%5cACQDJON200610130659DOWJONESDJONLINE000536.htm&

It will never end, it seems....

With Slobodan Milosevic dead and former Bosnian Serb President Radovan Karadzic on the run, the U.N. Yugoslav tribunal in The Hague is preparing to deliver its verdict on the highest-ranking remaining former politician awaiting judgment for alleged genocide in Bosnia.
The court will rule on Wednesday in the case of Momcilio Krajisnik, who was speaker of parliament in the breakaway Bosnian Serb Republic during the 1991-1995 Bosnian war, which left more than 200,000 dead on all sides.
Krajisnik, 61, has pleaded not guilty to eight charges, including genocide and plotting to commit genocide by "cleansing" parts of Bosnia of Muslims and Croats to create an ethnically pure "greater Serbia" together with Serbian President Milosevic, Karadzic, and others.
Prosecutors demanded a life sentence for Krajisnik, who they said was one of a troika of Bosnian Serb leaders bearing primary political responsibility for atrocities carried out by their troops from July 1991-December 1992, including civilian slaughters, and murder, torture and rape of detainees. The defense sought acquittal...
The U.N. tribunal is gradually winding down operations, with its final trial to begin by 2008 though it says it will always be ready to reopen if Karadzic or the Bosnian Serb general, Ratko Mladic, are arrested.
http://english.pravda.ru/news/world/26-09-2006/84694-crimes-0

Mon Sep 25, 6:28 PM ET
Serbia's foreign minister has warned of possible renewed conflict in the Balkans if the province of Kosovo becomes independent without the Serbian government's approval, according to comments published Monday.
Foreign Minister Vuk Draskovic suggested Kosovo should have full autonomy but not be allowed to hold separate membership in the United Nations and NATO.
"Kosovo's independence would produce trouble in the region, in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro and Macedonia," Draskovic was quoted as saying in the Kosovo Albanian daily Epoka e Re.
"You know that no border in the Balkans has been changed with an agreement," he said. "Borders have always been changed with wars, and that (Kosovo's independence) would naturally bring such a trouble."...
Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica reiterated Serbia's rejection of the possible secession of Kosovo.
Kosovo has been a U.N. protectorate since 1999 when NATO air raids forced Serbia to halt its crackdown on the separatists and pull its troops out.
"Kosovo has always been and will remain part of Serbia," Kostunica stressed in a statement. He reiterated Belgrade's proposal that Kosovo enjoy self-rule and broad autonomy, without a change of borders.
The chief U.N. envoy for Kosovo, Maarti Ahtisaari, said last week he had no "fixed deadlines" in the Kosovo status talks, though he is expected before the year's end to present the U.N. Security council with proposal for Kosovo's future.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060925/ap_on_re_eu/kosovo_status_talks_1

Well, wonder why Serbia was never given THIS option. Guess it's because they were never the "victims," only the "perpetrators"....if this tactic works, it will further reinforce the double-standard the Hague has used in prosecuting acts that occurred during the wars.

Croatia seeks to defend itself at Hague tribunal
3 September 2006 14:10 Source: Reuters
ZAGREB -- Croatia has asked to be a "friend of the court" at the United Nations war crimes tribunal.Croatia wants to combat what it says are unacceptable allegations about its military operations in the 1990s, state radio said on Friday.The government of Prime Minister Ivo Sanader has asked for the 'amicus curiae' status in a letter sent to the tribunal, the radio reported after a cabinet session. "We shall thus try to refute the unacceptable allegations in the indictments, in cooperation with the tribunal," Sanader said, referring to the trials of three Croatian generals and six Bosnian Croats, all of whom are in the tribunal's custody. The friend of the court is not a party in the trial but seeks to take part in the proceedings, believing the trial and its outcome may affect its interests. The indictments against the three generals allege that top Croatian state and army leaders engaged in a "joint criminal enterprise" to drive out for good rebel minority Serbs in a 1995 offensive codenamed Operation Storm. Some 150,000 Serbs fled the Croatian army's advance. Croatia says the offensive was its legitimate right, to retake land captured by Serb rebels at the outset of the war in 1991 when Zagreb declared independence from communist Yugoslavia. The six former Bosnian Croat leaders are accused of leading another joint criminal enterprise aimed at ethnically cleansing Muslims from parts of southern Bosnia in 1993 and proclaiming a separate Croat state. Their indictment says Bosnian Croat forces had acted under supervision or in coordination with Croatian army, police and intelligence. Croatia says its troops were never engaged in Bosnia. Croatia has significantly improved cooperation with the tribunal since Sanader took office in late 2003. The last remaining Croatian fugitive, general Ante Gotovina, was arrested in Spain last December. His trial is due to start in 2008.
http://www.b92.net/eng/news/globe-article.php?yyyy=2006&mm=09&dd=03&nav_category=123&nav_id=36473

Lordy--loo, what will happen next?

Row over Milosevic street-naming
By Nick Hawton BBC News, Belgrade A dispute has broken out in Serbia over plans to name a street after former President Slobodan Milosevic.
Members of Milosevic's Socialist Party in the country's second largest city, Novi Sad, have put forward the plan.
But political opponents have condemned the move, describing it as a scandal and vowing to organise protests.
Milosevic died earlier this year while on trial in The Hague, accused among other things of genocide for his role during the Bosnian war.
Continuing divisions
Members of the Socialist Party in Novi Sad say their former leader should be recognised for his many achievements, including the rebuilding of two bridges in the city that were destroyed by Nato bombs in 1999.
Although the party is no longer the force it once was, it does share power with other nationalist parties in the city.
Milosevic, who led Serbia during the wars of the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s, died of a heart attack while on trial at the UN war crimes tribunal in March.
The street-naming dispute highlights the continuing divisions over his legacy.
While many people blame him for leading Serbia into political isolation and economic hardship, others still regard him as a hero who tried to do his best for his people.
Story from BBC NEWS:http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/europe/5309854.stmPublished: 2006/09/03 10:30:48 GMT

A sad day for sports fans....
Serbia, Montenegro formally split in world basketball
Agence France-Presse
Posted date: August 29, 2006
TOKYO -- What had been left from the former Yugoslavia in the world of basketball ceased to exist on Tuesday as Serbia and Montenegro formally split after failing to defend the World Championship title.
World basketball governing body FIBA approved the Basketball Federation of Montenegro as its 213th member at a quadrennial world congress here.
The Basketball Federation of Serbia retains the place of the former Basketball Federation of Serbia and Montenegro as a member, FIBA said in a press release.
http://newsinfo.inq7.net/breakingnews/sports/view_article.php?article_id=17838

Serbia accuses U.N. envoy of bias
BELGRADE, Serbia, Aug. 29 (UPI) -- Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica on Tuesday accused a U.N. envoy of bias in favor of ethnic Albanians in the disputed province of Kosovo....
Kostunica has blamed [U.N. Kosovo envoy Martti] Ahtisaari for saying, "the Serbs are guilty as a people," and therefore the predominantly ethnic-Albanian province should become independent of Belgrade.
Ahtisaari has also said it was important to take into account the historical legacy of the former Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic, whose security forces reportedly persecuted ethnic-Albanians in Kosovo.
"Every nation in the world has a burden for which it has to pay," Ahtisaari said last week....
So, why are the Serbs the only group that always seems to be paying?
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/view.php?StoryID=20060829-120150-5124r

Sigh....Yet another negative Serb image....

I was all set to like James Hynes THE LECTURER'S TALE, a book about a failing academic at a prominent Midwestern research university (that sounds a great deal like my alma mater) who gets a new career boost when his reattached severed finger acquires the power to bend others' will to his own. I had read one of Hynes' earlier books, PUBLISH AND PERISH, in graduate school, and I loved his quick wit and his dead-on read of the petty, yet often brutal, politics of academe'. So, what's the problem? Should be a great read, right? Things were going along well, actually. Then, they introduced the character of Marko Kraljevic', intially, as a postmodern literary theorist who was in exile from Milosevic' regime. GREAT! I thought. Finally, someone is writing about those "other Serbs," the ones who did not support, condone or participate in Milosevic's policies and who paid steep penalties for their "lack of loyalty." Since I know such Serbs exist and have worked and studied with them, I was not shocked to see the character portrayed that way; it seemed a normal leap. My joy was not to be, however. Kraljevic' began acting more and more erratically as the book progressed, in homage, no doubt to his status as enfant terrible of pomo theory. THAT, I could have handled; I have known some weird theorists in my time, and some of them were European. What REALLY chapped my hide, though, was the ultimate, secret revelation: the man pretending to be Marko Kraljevic was really Slobodan Jamisovich, a Serbian war criminal known as Captain Dragan, the Butcher of Srebrenica. GIVE ME A BREAK, people!!! Is it just impossible for anyone in the Western hemisphere to admit that there is the slimmest possibility that maybe ONE Serb in the world was not directly responsible or a participant in the atrocities of the 1990's.? Must they ALL always be on Slobo's payroll, covertly or overtly? How many decades will have to pass before we can see "Serbs" as a diverse population of people, not a stereotype associated only with atrocities?

I thought about burning the book, but I have added it to my all-too-large collection of Serb stereotypes. I am thinking about cancelling my outstanding order for Hynes latest book in protest. A small gesture, but a fitting one, IMO; why reward him for continuing the work I am trying to undo?

Once again, it's okay if THEY do it, but always suspect if the SERBS do it....why does nothing have an ulterior motive until Serbia tries it?

US warns against exploiting new warcrime claims in ex-Yugoslavia
Wed Aug 16, 6:10 PM ET
The United States warned against attempts to politically exploit newly surfaced allegations of warcrimes committed against Serbs in the former Yugoslavia.
The allegations relate to amateur video footage that emerged this month purportedly showing Bosnian Muslim and Croatian forces killing or harassing Serbs in August and September 1995.
Serb and Bosnian Serb leaders have demanded action against Bosnian Muslims and Croatians allegedly involved in atrocities committed during "Operation Storm", an offensive aimed at regaining territory held by Serb rebels during the 1992-1995 war.
The United States, which has been critical of Serbia for failing to hand over key Serb warcrimes suspects, welcomed the fact that Bosnian, Croatian and Serbian prosecutors had met last week to discuss the latest allegations.
"The United States condemns all war crimes committed during the wars in the former Yugoslavia, regardless of the ethnic or religious identity of the victim or perpetrator," a State Department spokesman said Wednesday.
"Atrocities were committed by all sides of the conflicts with varying levels of planning and organization, and we condemn any attempts to exploit these tragedies for political advantage," said the spokesman, Gonzalo Gallegos.
"Holding individuals accountable for these crimes, and moving beyond collectivization of guilt of entire groups, is vital to ensuring stability, security and reconciliation in the region," he said.
One of the videos, which surfaced last week, allegedly showed Atif Dudakovic, the former commander of the Bosnian Muslim army's 5th Corps, telling his troops to "torch" Serb villages in September 1995.
A separate video released days earlier allegedly depicts members of the Croatian army's Black Mamba unit and Bosnian Muslim forces killing and harassing Serb refugees in August 1995.
Dudakovic denied the allegations and Croatian President Stipe Mesic accused the Serbian government of exploiting the footage to deflect attention from war crimes committed by Serbs and its failure to track down the two top fugitives, former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic and his military chief, Ratko Mladic.
The emergence of the videos, Mesic said, was Belgrade's "attempt, probably for the Serbian public, to share the guilt and crimes".
Sulejman Tihic, the current holder of Bosnia's rotating presidency, also accused Serb leaders of seeking political gain from the issue.
"If they are truly committed to processing war criminals, let them prove so by arresting Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic, because they have been hiding and financing them for 11 years," said Tihic.
Copyright © 2006 Agence France Presse
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060816/pl_afp/warcrimesbosniaserbia_060816221031

Milosevic's millions remain unclaimed
Belgrade - Serbia's former ruler Slobodan Milosevic was worth about R78-million, but no heir has yet laid claim to his assets, it was reported today. Milosevic owned property in an elite area of Belgrade and his combined property is worth slightly over d9-million.However, none of Milosevic's inheritors have appeared to claim the riches, a court in Belgrade said, according to the daily Press.None of Milosevic's close family members reside in Serbia. His wife, Mirjana Markovic, is wanted by the Serbian judiciary in connection with an abuse of power case and is believed to be in Russia.Milosevic's son, Marko, also reputed to have accumulated great wealth during the rule of his father, is also believed to be in Russia.His daughter, Marija, lives in Montenegro.Milosevic, on trial for war crimes at the UN International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague, died in March of heart failure while in the detention unit of the court.- Sapa-DPA Published on the web by Star on August 14, 2006.
© Star 2006. All rights reserved.
http://www.thestar.co.za/index.php?fArticleId=3390399

Time to re-think
14 August 2006 William Montgomery
In late 1989 or early 1990, the Central Intelligence Agency produced an analysis of the former Yugoslavia which was in retrospect, exactly on target. It predicted that the country would break up into different states, almost certainly accompanied by significant violence.
This was not welcome news in Washington. Former President Bush strongly believed that Mikhail Gorbachov was a vital positive force that needed to remain in full control of the Soviet Union. He believed that the breakup of the Soviet Union would unleash forces of anarchy and the potential for significant proliferation of nuclear weapons. He and those around him believed that the breakup of the former Yugoslavia would set a bad precedent for the Soviet Union. Secondly, they were legitimately worried about the potential of violence in any breakup. They had no stomach and no interest in any military actions in Europe in the period before the November, 1992 Presidential elections. The strong position emanating from the White House and senior State Department circles was that we did not want the breakup to happen. This coincided exactly with the views of the American Embassy in Belgrade, which not only did not want it to happen, they believed it could be prevented. The Embassy at the time put all of its “eggs” in one basket, the government of Prime Minister Ante Markovic. The Embassy believed that with our support, he could overcome the growing nationalistic tensions. So the CIA analysis was disregarded and the far more optimistic views and policy initiatives of the Embassy accepted. Consequently, all of the efforts of the United States government for the critical period in which the fate of Yugoslavia was sealed were directed at preventing its breakup. Having just arrived in Washington from serving in the Region and knowing the strength of the various independence and nationalist forces, it was clear to me that we were “betting on a losing horse.” It would have been far better to have accepted the inevitability of the breakup and focus all of our efforts on ensuring that it would happen peacefully. This was the best and perhaps only chance to prevent the whirlwind of violence which subsequently engulfed this region.
http://www.b92.net/eng/insight/opinions.php?nav_id=36126