Time to re-think
14 August 2006 William Montgomery
In late 1989 or early 1990, the Central Intelligence Agency produced an analysis of the former Yugoslavia which was in retrospect, exactly on target. It predicted that the country would break up into different states, almost certainly accompanied by significant violence.
This was not welcome news in Washington. Former President Bush strongly believed that Mikhail Gorbachov was a vital positive force that needed to remain in full control of the Soviet Union. He believed that the breakup of the Soviet Union would unleash forces of anarchy and the potential for significant proliferation of nuclear weapons. He and those around him believed that the breakup of the former Yugoslavia would set a bad precedent for the Soviet Union. Secondly, they were legitimately worried about the potential of violence in any breakup. They had no stomach and no interest in any military actions in Europe in the period before the November, 1992 Presidential elections. The strong position emanating from the White House and senior State Department circles was that we did not want the breakup to happen. This coincided exactly with the views of the American Embassy in Belgrade, which not only did not want it to happen, they believed it could be prevented. The Embassy at the time put all of its “eggs” in one basket, the government of Prime Minister Ante Markovic. The Embassy believed that with our support, he could overcome the growing nationalistic tensions. So the CIA analysis was disregarded and the far more optimistic views and policy initiatives of the Embassy accepted. Consequently, all of the efforts of the United States government for the critical period in which the fate of Yugoslavia was sealed were directed at preventing its breakup. Having just arrived in Washington from serving in the Region and knowing the strength of the various independence and nationalist forces, it was clear to me that we were “betting on a losing horse.” It would have been far better to have accepted the inevitability of the breakup and focus all of our efforts on ensuring that it would happen peacefully. This was the best and perhaps only chance to prevent the whirlwind of violence which subsequently engulfed this region.
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